We consider inference on optimal treatment assignments. Our methods allow for inference on the treatment assignment rule that would be optimal given knowledge of the population treatment effect in a general setting. The procedure uses multiple hypothesis testing methods to determine a subset of...

We establish the validity of an Edgeworth expansion to the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter of a stationary, Gaussian, strongly dependent process. The result covers ARFIMA type models, including fractional Gaussian noise. The method of proof consists of three...

We provide in this paper asymptotic theory for the multivariate GARCH (p,q) process. Strong consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is established by appealing to conditions given in Jeantheau [19] in conjunction with a result given by Boussama [9] concerning the existence of...

We start by discussing some general weaknesses and limitations of the econometric approach. A template from sociology is used to formulate six laws that characterize mainstream activities of econometrics and the scientific limits of those activities, we discuss some proximity theorems that...

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics...

This paper is concerned with robust estimation under moment restrictions. A moment restriction model is semiparametric and distribution-free, therefore it imposes mild assumptions. Yet it is reasonable to expect that the probability law of observations may have some deviations from the ideal...

This paper considers regression models for cross-section data that exhibit cross-section dependence due to common shocks, such as macroeconomic shocks. The paper analyzes the properties of least squares (LS) and instrumental variables (IV) estimators in this context. The results of the paper...

We discuss some challenges presented by trending data in time series econometrics. To the empirical economist there is little guidance from theory about the source of trend behavior and even less guidance about practical formulations. Moreover, recent proximity theorems reveal that trends are...

A method is proposed in this paper for predicting Electoral College victory probabilities from state probability data. A "ranking" assumption about dependencies across states is made that greatly simplifies the analysis. The method issued to analyze state probability data from the Intrade...

This paper provides an interpretation of the uncertainty that exists at the beginning of the day of an election as to who will win. It is based on the theory that there are a number of possible conditions of nature that can exist on election day, of which one is drawn. Political betting markets...