Recent empirical research, Flavin (1981), Hagashi (1982), has rejected the certainty-equivalent formulation of permanent income hypothesis, Hall (1978). These findings are often attributed to households' inability to borrow completely against expected future labor income. This paper is a...

This paper is an empirical investigation of the predictability and comovement of risk premia in the term structure of Euromarket interest rates. We show that variables which have been used as proxies for risk premia on uncovered foreign asset positions also predict excess returns in Euromarket...

This paper provides a choice theoretic, general equilibrium account of the balance of payments adjustment process and the determination of national price levels in a world comprised of countries populated by rational households. Balance of payments adjustment dynamics arise in the equilibrium of...

The objective of this paper is to study international lending and borrowing in general equilibrium framework in which countries are subject to stochastic productivity fluctuations. The role of time preference, borrowing limits, and lump sum taxation are rigorously analyzed, yielding results...

We establish rigorously the existence and properties of the stationary probability distribution which characterizes the accumulation of non-contingent financial claims by a risk averse individual who confronts random wage fluctuations and incomplete insurance markets. We show that there exists a...

We construct a simple stochastic open-economy macro-economic model from the decision rules of rational optimizing agents, solving explicitly for the relationship between the model's deep parameters, and the variance-covariance matrix of equilibrium returns on domestic and foreign assets. We use...

We establish that the recursive, state-space methods of Kalman filtering and smoothing can be used to implement the Doan, Litterman, and Sims (1983) approach to econometric forecast and policy evaluation. Compared with the methods outlined in Doan, Litterman, and Sims, the Kalman algorithms are...

We consider an single object auction environment with interdependent valuations and a generalized Vickrey-Clark-Groves allocation mechanism that allocates the object almost efficiently in a strict ex post equilibrium. If there is a significant amount of interdependence, there are multiple...

Some limit properties for information based model selection criteria are given in the context of unit root evaluation and various assumptions about initial conditions. Allowing for a nonparametric short memory component, standard information criteria are shown to be weakly consistent for a unit...

The aggregation problem in demand analysis and exchange equilibrium is studied by putting restrictions on the shape of the distribution of the agents' characteristics. This is done by exploiting the finite dimensional linear structure induced on demand functions by affine transformations of the...