This paper analyzes Branch Rickey's 1954 equation in a regression context. The results for 1934--1953 are consistent with Rickey's conclusions, and the equation holds up well when extended 51 years. Two of Rickey's main points were that on base percentage dominates batting average and that...

Age effects in baseball are estimated in this paper using a nonlinear fixed-effects regression. The sample consists of all players who have played 10 or more "full-time" years in the major leagues between 1921 and 2004. Quadratic improvement is assumed up to a peak-performance age, which is...

This paper develops a multivariate regression theory for integrated processes which simplifies and extends much earlier work. Our framework allows for both stochastic and certain deterministic regressors, vector autoregressions and regressors with drift. The main focus of the paper is...

Recent work on the theory of regression with integrated process is reviewed. This work is particularly relevant in economics where many financial series and macroeconomic time series exhibit nonstationary characteristics and are often well modeled individually as simple ARIMA processes. The...

Some convenient limit properties of usual information criteria are given for cointegrating rank selection. Allowing for a nonparametric short memory component and using a reduced rank regression with only a single lag, standard information criteria are shown to be weakly consistent in the choice...

Reduced rank regression (RRR) models with time varying heterogeneity are considered. Standard information criteria for selecting cointegrating rank are shown to be weakly consistent in semiparametric RRR models in which the errors have general nonparametric short memory components and shifting...

In his paper "To Criticize the Critics" (1991), Peter Phillips discusses Bayesian methodology for time series models. The main point that Uhlig and I set out to make, however, was that careful consideration of the implications of the likelihood principle suggests that much of the recent work...

This paper develops statistics for detecting the presence of a unit root in time series data against the alternative stationarity. Unlike most existing procedures, the new tests allow for deterministic trend polynomials in the maintained hypothesis. They may be used to discriminate between unit...

Some challenges for econometric research on trending time are discussed in relation to some perceived needs of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy making.

Power functions of tests of the random walk hypothesis versus stationary first order autoregressive alternatives are tabulated for samples of fixed span but various frequencies of observation. For a t-test and normalized test, power is found to depend, for a substantial range of parameter...