Fisher's equation for the determination of the real rate of interest is studied from a fresh econometric perspective. Some new methods of data description for nonstationary time series are introduced. The methods provide a nonparametric mechanism for modelling the spatial densities of a time...

Semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter is studied in models of fractional integration in the nonstationary case, and some new representation theory for the discrete Fourier transform of a fractional process is used to assist in the analysis. A limit theory is developed for an...

Discrete Fourier transforms (dft's) of fractional processes are studied and an exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data. The new representation gives the frequency domain form of the model for a fractional process, and is particularly useful in analyzing the...

Log periodogram (LP) regression is shown to be consistent and to have a mixed normal limit distribution when the memory parameter d = 1. Gaussian errors are not required. Tests of d = 1 based on LP regression are consistent against d < 1 alternatives but inconsistent against d > 1 alternatives. A test based on a modified LP regression that...</1>

Estimation of the memory parameter (d) is considered for models of nonstationary fractionally integrated time series with d > (1/2). It is shown that the log periodogram regression estimator of d is inconsistent when 1 < d < 2 and is consistent when (1/2) < d = 1. For d > 1, the estimator is shown to converge in probability to unity.

An exact form of the local Whittle likelihood is studied with the intent of developing a general purpose estimation procedure for the memory parameter (d) that does not rely on tapering or differencing prefilters. The resulting exact local Whittle estimator is shown to be consistent and to have...

Asymptotic properties of the local Whittle estimator in the nonstationary case (d > 1/2) are explored. For 1/2 < d < 1, the estimator is shown to be consistent, and its limit distribution and the rate of convergence depend on the value of d. For d = 1, the limit distribution is mixed normal. For d > 1 and when the process has a linear trend, the estimator is shown to be inconsistent and to converge in probability to unity.

This paper presents estimates indicating that, for aggregate U.S. stock market data 1871-1986, a long historical average of real earnings is a good predictor of the present value of future real dividends. This is true even when the information contained in stock prices is taken into account. We...

It is widely claimed that housing wealth, as well as stock prices, have an impact on consumption and hence on aggregate economic activity. This paper presents a broad overview of the issues that arise in evaluating this claim in the context of recent research in behavioral economics. Particular...

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector...