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effects. In a controlled laboratory experiment we show that exogenous variation of second-order expectations (promisors …' expectations about promisees' expectations that the promise will be kept) leads to a significant change in promisor behavior. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252589
In this paper we present a series of models, all within the context of a simple two-good economy, which bring out the distinctions between the different types of money and financial institutions. The models emphasize the physical properties of the economic goods, moneys, and trading systems. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762717
In this paper we present a series of models, all within the context of a simple two-good economy, which bring out the distinctions among the different types of money and financial institutions. The models emphasize the physical properties of the economic goods, moneys, and trading systems. Part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005093960
Do asset prices aggregate investors’ private information about the ability of financial analysts? We show that as financial analysts become reputable, the market can get trapped: Investors optimally choose to ignore their private information, and blindly follow analyst recommendations. As time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011240393
A large body of experimental data demonstrates that people's beliefs influence their well-being beyond the indirect effect through the actions taken. I present a model that incorporates beliefs into an agent's utility function. The paper provides axiomatic foundations for a special class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593381
This paper experimentally investigates cooperative game theory from a normative perspective. Subjects designated as Decision Makers express their view on what is fair for others, by recommending a payoff allocation for three subjects (Recipients) whose substitutabilities and complementarities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010895694
Psychological experiments demonstrate that people exhibit a taste for consistency. Individuals are inclined to interpret new evidence in ways that confirm their pre-existing beliefs. They also tend to change their beliefs to enhance the desirability of their past actions. I present a model that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005463891
models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z_{t} in forming their expectations … for periods t+1 and beyond. These expectations may or may not be rational in the Muth sense. The results provide some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005249280
expectations of the aggregate price level and one in which expectations are rational. Under the first hypothesis the lag length is … parameters. The results strongly support the hypothesis that aggregate price expectations affect individual pricing decisions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762653
The use of price-earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762739