This paper estimates, using stochastic simulation and a multicountry macroeconometric model, the fraction of the forecast-error variance of output changes and the fraction of the forecast-error variance of inflation that are due to unpredictable asset-price changes. The results suggest that...

It is well known that modeling exchange rates is difficult. Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results show that a random walk model performs as well as or better than a variety of structural models, where the forecasts from the structural models are based on the actual values of the future explanatory...

This paper estimates the amount by which the effectiveness of monetary policy in changing real output has declined due to the increased size of the federal government debt.

This paper examines the equation-by-equation accuracy of the Michigan and Fair model using the method in Fair (1980). Emphasis is placed on examining the possible misspecification of the equations. In an earlier study, Fair and Alexander (1984), we used the method to examine the accuracy of the...

The results in this paper, based on estimating and testing price equations for 30 countries, do not support the standard view of the long-run relationship between unemployment and inflation. They overwhelmingly reject the dynamics implied by the standard view. Wage equations are also estimated...

A more sophisticated expectational hypothesis than is traditionally used in the specification of macroeconometric models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z_{t} in forming their expectations for periods t+1 and beyond. These expectations may or may...