Drechsel, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - In: Credit and Capital Markets 45 (2012) 1, pp. 1-26
This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany. This recession is very different from previous recessions in particular regarding their causes and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the...