In this paper, we investigate the responsiveness of financial markets to monetary policy expectations in Turkey. According to the efficient markets hypothesis, financial markets respond to anticipated policy actions prior to a policy announcement. As a result, they are expected to respond only...

This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...

Many central banks in emerging economies have used reserve requirements (RR) to alleviate the trade-off between financial stability and price stability in recent years. Notwithstanding their widespread use, transmission channels of RR have remained largely as a black-box. In this paper, we use...

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

Although reserve requirements have been used in emerging markets to smooth credit cycles, the exact transmission mechanism remains to be explored. Using bank level data, this study looks inside the black-box to unveil the interaction of reserve requirement policy with bank lending. We identify a...

This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy communication of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) by quantifying the information content of the policy statements released right after the monthly Monetary Policy Committee meetings. First, we quantify the signal regarding the next...

Central bank credibility is critical for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The measures of credibility that are based on the changes in actual inflation rate do not perform very well in environments of chronic inflation. We design an alternative measure that allows us to track the evolution...

This paper examines the impact of negative interest rate announcements of the ECB on Turkish financial markets. Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP) are expected to affect emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through an increase in the inflow of capital searching for higher yields....