This paper describes the current stress-testing framework used at the Czech National Bank (CNB) to test the resilience of the banking sector. Macroeconomic scenarios and satellite models linking macroeconomic developments with key risk parameters and assumptions for generating dynamic stock-flow...

The ex post analysis of inflation-target fulfillment plays an important role in the inflation-targeting framework. The major benefits of ex post analysis are threefold. First, it improves forecast accuracy. Knowledge of the main sources of previous forecast inaccuracies helps to better...

This paper deals with theoretical and empirical dimension of publishing interest rates projections by central banks. Its first goal is to review arguments in favor of and against this decision and to illustrate the debate using experience of four central banks which publish or used to publish...

The first 10 years of Czech Republic's inflation targeting regime have been remarkable by the persistent undershooting of the inflation targets. This article is an introduction to a special issue aimed at analyzing the factors of the undershooting. The articles in this issue explore the...

Úspìch cílování inflace spoèívá v systematické reakci mìnové politiky na významnìjší poruchy. K zajištìní systémového chování musí být monetární politika explicitnì založena na støednìdobém makroekonomickém rámci s dopøedu hledícím transmisním mechanizmem....

Central banks put much more emphasis on monetary-policy communication now than they did only about a decade ago. This introduction to the special issue on monetary-policy communication provides an overview of the articles in the journal and puts them into perspective. It notes that despite the...

This paper introduces a strategy for modeling the exchange rate when the monetary authority targets inflation while also managing the exchange rate using interventions. It does so in the framework of a standard reduced-form New Keynesian model of monetary transmission used in many institutions...

The Czech National Bank has a respectable track record in terms of its policy actions and the corresponding inflation outturns. The authors analyze its main communication tools – inflation targets, inflation forecasts, verbal assessments of the inflation risks contained in quarterly inflation...

In this article, the authors investigate the possible time-varying structure of DSGE models. They follow the study of Andrle et al. (2009), which argues that models designed for monetary policy analysis and forecasting of an economy that is undergoing structural changes must include exogenous...