Similar Search Results

Predicting recessions in Germany with boosted regression trees

Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2015 - First version: October 2015

leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381289

A macroeconometric assessment of Minsky's Financial Instability Hpothesis

Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew; Tarassow, Artur - 2013

The Financial Instability Hypothesis associated with Hyman Minsky has profound implications for the conduct of monetary policy in modern capitalist economies. At its core is the proposition that the central bank may contribute to the financial fragility of leveraged firms in its pursuit of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425830

Personal insolvency dynamics in Germany and the UK : a SUR-TAR approach

König, Nadja - 2016

This paper analyses the dynamics of personal insolvencies in Germany and the UK, focusing on the recent recession. These countries are particularly interesting as they are both member countries of the European Union, yet have completely different approaches to deal with overindebted individuals....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420671

Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts : evidence from a survey among professional forecasters

Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Waldhof, Gabi - 2017

The paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011685558

Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? : panel-based evidence on accuracy and forecaster behaviour from Germany

Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Müller, Karsten - 2018

Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse forecast accuracy for the periods before and after the Great Recession, including measures of directional change accuracy based on Receiver Operating Curves (ROC).We find only small...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852757

Deciphering professional forecasters' stories : analyzing a corpus of textual predictions for the German economy

Fritsche, Ulrich; Puckelwald, Johannes - 2018

We analyze a corpus of 564 business cycle forecast reports for the German economy. The dataset covers nine institutions and 27 years. From the entire reports we select the parts that refer exclusively to the forecast of the German economy. Sentiment and frequency analysis confirm that the mode...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852760

Sharks and minnows in a shoal of words: measuring latent ideological positions of German economic research institutes based on text mining techniques

Diaf, Sami; Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Rockenbach, Ida - 2020

Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), namely Wordfish and Wordshoal we scale the institutions' theoretical/ideological...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264536

Animal spirits, the stock market, and the unemployment rate : some evidence for German data

Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2016 - First version: January 2016

", stock-market fluctuations should Granger cause fluctuations of the unemployment rate. We performed several Granger … (2015) for U.S. data, we found that the stock market Granger causes unemployment in the short run and the long run when we … control for a deterministic trend in the unemployment rate. Results of a frequency-domain test show that, in the short run …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011415821

Cross-border banking and business cycles in asymmetric currency unions

Dräger, Lena; Proaño Acosta, Christian - 2015

Against the background of the recent housing boom and bust in countries such as Spain and Ireland, we investigate in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010497607

Financial investment constraints : a panel threshold application to German firm level data

Tarassow, Artur - 2014

This paper attempts to test whether financial supply-side shifts explain the low-investment climate of private firms in Germany. The core contention is that a firm's financial position contributes to its access to external finance on credit markets. Special emphasizes is put on small and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425733