Angesichts der gegenwärtigen Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise überbieten sich die Anbieter von Prognosen derzeit in immer neuen Schreckenszenarien und pessimistischen Konjunkturvorhersagen. Prognosen beeinflussen Verhalten und Stimmungen und sind deshalb in Krisenzeiten von besonderer...

Nach einem neuen methodischen Prognosekonzept, das arbeitsmarktbezogene Internetdaten nutzt, entspannt sich zum Frühjahr 2009 die Arbeitsmarktlage. Das Papier erläutert die Technik der Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit unter Nutzung der Messung der Google-Suchaktivität und illustriert die...

The request for a strengthening of academic research at the German economic research institutes by the German Science Council more than a decade ago was founded on the crucial insight that sound policy advice - the traditional task of the institutes - can only be guaranteed in the long term if...

We analyze the pass-through of cost changes to retail tariffs in the German electricity market over the 2007 to 2014 period. We find an average pass-through rate of around 60%, which significantly varies with demand factors: while the pass-through rate to baseline tariffs, where firms have...

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

We study the impact of broadband availability on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) using German firm-level data between 2010 and 2015. We adopt a control function approach to causally identify and separately estimate productivity for 46 two-digit manufacturing and service sectors. Over...

In this paper we study the economic effects of risk attitudes, time preferences, trust and reciprocity while we compare natives and second generation migrants. We analyze an inflow sample into unemployment in Germany, and find differences between the two groups mainly in terms of risk attitudes...