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Stock Return Predictability : Is it There?
Ang, Andrew - 2001
We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470517
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Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility
Andersen, Torben G. - 2001
This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566
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Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration : Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange
Diebold, Francis X. - 1998
We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471967
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Implied Exchange Rate Distributions : Evidence from OTC Option Markets
Campa, Jose M. - 1997
This paper uses a rich new data set of option prices on the dollar-mark, dollar-yen, and key EMS cross-rates to extract the entire risk-neutral probability density function (pdf) over horizons of one and three months. We compare three alternative smoothing methods---cubic splines, an implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472635
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Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States : Does One Size Fit All?
Chinn, Menzie D. - 1997
We study the post-war evidence for Japan to see if the same specification for both the economy and the monetary policy … rule is useful for understanding Japan's economy and monetary policy. A recurrent theme in the literature on Japanese … that, with minor adjustments, the same specification provides a useful framework for understanding monetary policy in Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472722
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Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?
Collins, William J. - 1997
Trade theorists have come to understand that their theory is ambiguous on the question: Are trade and factor flows substitutes? While this sounds like an open invitation for empirical research, hardly any serious econometric work has appeared in the literature. This paper uses history to fill...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472755
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The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastibility of Spot Exchange Rates : Correcting the Errors
Clarida, Richard H. - 1993
We present theory and evidence that challenges the view that forward premia contain little information regarding subsequent spot rate movements. Using weekly dollar-mark and dollar sterling data, we find that spot and forward exchange rates together are well represented by a vector error...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474508
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Central Bank Credibility : An Historical and Quantitative Exploration
Bordo, Michael D. - 2015
In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives from eleven countries. To the extent we are able to apply reliable institutional information we can also indirectly assess their role in influencing the credibility of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457842
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Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective
Bordo, Michael - 2014
This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457973
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Living Up to Expectations : Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
Cole, Stephen J.; Martínez-García, Enrique; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
and affects the overall effectiveness of forward guidance. We find that the central banks of the U.S., the U.K., Germany …, and other major advanced economies have similar levels of credibility (albeit far from full credibility); however, Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421202