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Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors

Knüppel, Malte - 2009

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of recent squared forecast errors, where the number of available past forecast errors decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003882901

Empirical simultaneous confidence regions for path-forecasts

Jordà, Òscar; Knüppel, Malte; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2010

Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003962215

How informative are central bank assessments of macroeconomic risks?

Knüppel, Malte; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido - 2011

Surveying the forecasting practice of several central banks, we find that all these banks issue statements about risks to their macroeconomic forecasts. Often the balance of these risks is assessed as well. Upward [downward] risks to the forecast commonly imply that the outturn is expected to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009159256

Social custom, free-riders, and trade union membership in Germany and Great Britain

Goerke, Laszlo; Pannenberg, Markus - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283773

Umfang und Kompensation von Überstunden : eine vergleichende Analyse für Westdeutschland und Großbritannien

Wagner, Gert G.; Pannenberg, Markus - 2000

In the 1990s overtime incidence in Great Britain and West Germany is quite similar, while the average amount of hours … of overtime for full-time male workers with overtime in Great Britain is roughly twice those in Germany for all years. We … time. In Germany, we observe a remarkable decrease in the share of workers who work paid overtime and a significant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260756

Margins of international banking : is there a productivity pecking order in banking, too?

Buch, Claudia M.; Koch, Cathérine Tahmee; Koetter, Michael - 2009

Modern trade theory emphasizes firm-level productivity differentials to explain the cross-border activities of non-financial firms. This study tests whether a productivity pecking order also determines international banking activities. Using a novel dataset that contains all German banks’...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889133

Do banks benefit from internationalization? : Revisiting the market power-risk nexus

Buch, Claudia M.; Koch, Cathérine Tahmee; Koetter, Michael - 2010

groups and of different size. -- Market power-risk nexus ; international banking ; micro-data ; Germany …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008667402

Determinants of German FDI : new evidence from micro-data

Toubal, Farid; Kleinert, Jörn; Buch, Claudia M. - 2003

This paper provides new evidence on the foreign direct investment stocks of German firms. We use firm-level data for the years 1990-2000 to describe the regional and sectoral patterns of German FDI through gravity-type equations. We provide evidence on the patterns of FDI by sector, by size of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432062

Volatile multinationals? : evidence from the labor demand of German firms

Buch, Claudia M. (contributor); … - 2007

' activities is associated with an increase in firm-level employment volatility. We use a firm-level dataset for Germany which … that are active in Germany. We decompose the volatility of firms into their reaction and their exposure to aggregate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003529554

Heterogeneity in lending and sectoral growth : evidence from German bank-level data

Buch, Claudia M. (contributor); … - 2006

This paper studies the sectoral and geographical dimensions of the response of bank lending to sectoral growth. We use several bank-level datasets provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank for the 1996-2002 period. Our results show that bank heterogeneity affects how lending responds to domestic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003349854