In this paper we obtain bounds under weaker nonparametric assumptions and explore how the bounds with assumptions imposed.

We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These...

This paper estimates the long-term trends in the daily maxima of tropospheric ozone at six sites around the state of Texas. The statistical methodology we use controls for the effects of meteorological variables because it is known that variables such as temperature, wind speed and humidity...

This paper presnets a method for simultaneously estimating a system of nonparametric multiple regressions which may seem unrelated, but where the errors are potentially correlated between equations. We show that the prime advantage of estimating such a 'seemingly unrelated' system of...

A new regression based approach is proposed for modeling marketing databases. The approach is Bayesian and provides a number of significant improvements over current methods. Independent variables can enter into the model in either a parametric or nonparametric manner, significant variables can...

Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. These ten methods include the Lee-Carter method and many of its variants and extensions. For...

Examining the accuracy of the monopolistic competition theory's predictions for import volumes, we assess whether this theory accounts for the empirical success of the gravity equation. Since certain factor-endowment based theories have the same prediction for import volumes, we employ...

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for non-divergent or coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and...