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Structural unemployment and the output gap in Germany : evidence from an SVAR analysis within a hysteresis framework

Fritsche, Ulrich; Logeay, Camille - 2002

The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260640

Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260642

Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany : An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion

Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - 2004

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260675

Vorlaufeigenschaften von ifo-Indikatoren für Westdeutschland

Fritsche, Ulrich - 1999

Ifo-Indikatoren werden auf ihre Vorlaufeigenschaften, auf Granger-Kausalität, die Stabilität der Vorlaufbeziehung und einen Strukturbruch untersucht. Da die Ifo-Reihen noch nicht auf die neue Gliederung der amtlichen Statistik (WZ 93) umgestellt wurden, wird erstmals die Eignung der...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260707

Short term living conditions and long term prospects of immigrant children in Germany

Frick, Joachim R.; Wagner, Gert G. - 2000

Der im Ausland geborene Teil der in Deutschland lebenden Bevölkerung besteht aus Ausländern und Aussiedlern, die aus … osteuropäischen Ländern nach Deutschland emigriert sind. Während die erste Gruppe mit Problemen konfrontiert ist, die aus dem typisch … deutschen Pass. Etwa die Hälfte der Immigranten, die seit 1984 nach Deutschland kamen, sind der Gruppe der Aussiedler …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260753

Do probit models help in forecasting turning points in German business cycles?

Fritsche, Ulrich - 2001

In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260762

Schooling and Citizenship: Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms

Siedler, Thomas - 2007

This paper examines whether schooling has a positive impact on individual's political interest, voting turnout, democratic values, political involvement and political group membership, using the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS). Between 1949 and 1969 the number of compulsory years of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260897

Does Parental Unemployment Cause Right-Wing Extremism?

Siedler, Thomas - 2007

Recent years have witnessed a rise in right-wing extremism among German youth and young adults. This paper investigates the extent to which the experience of parental unemployment during childhood affects young people's far right-wing attitudes and xenophobia. Estimates from three German data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260898

Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-run Divergence? Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany

Dullien, Sebastian; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2007

Using unit labor cost (ULC) data from Euro area countries as well as US States and German L¨ander we investigate inflation convergence using different approaches, namely panel unit root tests, cointegration tests and error-correction models. All in all we cannot reject convergence of ULC growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260904

O Brother, Where Art Thou? The Effects of Having a Sibling on Geographic Mobility and Labor Market Outcomes

Rainer, Helmut; Siedler, Thomas - 2006

In most industrialized countries, more people than ever are having to cope with the burden of caring for elderly parents. This paper formulates a model to explain how parental care responsibilities and family structure interact in affecting children?s mobility characteristics. A key insight we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260973