Similar Search Results

Structural unemployment and the output gap in Germany : evidence from an SVAR analysis within a hysteresis framework

Fritsche, Ulrich; Logeay, Camille - 2002

The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260640

Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260642

Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany : An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion

Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - 2004

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260675

Vorlaufeigenschaften von ifo-Indikatoren für Westdeutschland

Fritsche, Ulrich - 1999

Ifo-Indikatoren werden auf ihre Vorlaufeigenschaften, auf Granger-Kausalität, die Stabilität der Vorlaufbeziehung und einen Strukturbruch untersucht. Da die Ifo-Reihen noch nicht auf die neue Gliederung der amtlichen Statistik (WZ 93) umgestellt wurden, wird erstmals die Eignung der...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260707

Short term living conditions and long term prospects of immigrant children in Germany

Frick, Joachim R.; Wagner, Gert G. - 2000

Der im Ausland geborene Teil der in Deutschland lebenden Bevölkerung besteht aus Ausländern und Aussiedlern, die aus … osteuropäischen Ländern nach Deutschland emigriert sind. Während die erste Gruppe mit Problemen konfrontiert ist, die aus dem typisch … deutschen Pass. Etwa die Hälfte der Immigranten, die seit 1984 nach Deutschland kamen, sind der Gruppe der Aussiedler …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260753

Do probit models help in forecasting turning points in German business cycles?

Fritsche, Ulrich - 2001

In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260762

Does the Dispersion of Unit Labor Cost Dynamics in the EMU Imply Long-run Divergence? Results from a Comparison with the United States of America and Germany

Dullien, Sebastian; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2007

Using unit labor cost (ULC) data from Euro area countries as well as US States and German L¨ander we investigate inflation convergence using different approaches, namely panel unit root tests, cointegration tests and error-correction models. All in all we cannot reject convergence of ULC growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260904

To claim or not to claim: estimating non-take-up of social assistance in Germany and the role of measurement error

Frick, Joachim R.; Groh-Samberg, Olaf - 2007

Using representative micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) for the year 2002, we analyse non-take-up behaviour of Social Assistance (SA) in Germany. According to our simulation as much as 67 percent of the eligible population did not claim SA in that year which is slightly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264975

Individual Well-Being in a Dynamic Perspective

D'Ambrosio, Conchita; Frick, Joachim R. - 2007

This paper explores the determinants of individual well-being as measured by self-reported levels of satisfaction with income. Making full use of the panel data nature of the German Socio-Economic Panel, we provide empirical evidence for well-being depending on absolute and on relative levels of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272277

Declining Output Volatility in Germany : Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2004

We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274489