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The Chinese impact on GDP growth and inflation in the industrial countries

Dreger, Christian; Zhang, Yanqun - 2011

investigates to what extent this process affects output growth and inflation in the advanced countries. A GVAR model is specified … and Japan. For robustness, the results are compared to those obtained from leading structural models, such as NiGEM and … multipliers are also reduced by a sizeable effect on inflation, as Chinese firms participate in international production chains. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286628

The cyclicality of effective wages within employer-employee matches: evidence from German panel data

Anger, Silke - 2007

Using individual based micro-data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), I analyze the cyclicality of real wages for male workers within employer-employee matches over the period 1984-2004, and compare different wage measures: the standard hourly wage rate, hourly wage earnings...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264964

Self-Employment Dynamics Across the Business Cycle: Migrants Versus Natives

Constant, Amelie F.; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2004

Economically active people are either in gainful employment, are unemployed or self-employed. We are interested in the dynamics of the transitions between these states across the business cycle. It is generally perceived that employment or self-employment are absorbing states. However,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272276

Asymmetric monetary policy effects in Germany

Tober, Silke; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2004

In a small structural model we find asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy in Germany depending on whether the economy is in an upswing or a downswing. These two different regimes are also identified using a Markov-switching model and the Kalman filter. Our results indicate that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274488

Declining Output Volatility in Germany : Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2004

We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274489

Structural unemployment and the output gap in Germany : evidence from an SVAR analysis within a hysteresis framework

Fritsche, Ulrich; Logeay, Camille - 2002

The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260640

The cross-section of output and inflation in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices

Döpke, Jörg; Funke, Michael; Holly, Sean; Weber, Sebastian - 2009

output and inflation across a population of firms is studied. The only form of heterogeneity is confined to the probability … of output and inflation depend crucially on the proportion of firms that are allowed to change their prices. We test this …-cyclical correlation between the skewness of inflation and aggregates, but the relation with output is less sure. Our results can be …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271147

Job flows, demographics and the Great Recession

Sierminska, Eva; Takhtamanova, Yelena - 2010

The recession the United States economy entered in December of 2007 is considered to be the most severe downturn the country has experienced since the Great Depression. The unemployment rate reached as high as 10.1 percent in October 2009 - the highest we have seen since the 1982 recession. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285770

Persistence and cycles in the US federal funds rate

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2012

This paper uses long-range dependence techniques to analyse two important features of the US Federal Funds effective rate, namely its persistence and cyclical behaviour. It examines annual, monthly, bi-weekly and weekly data, from 1954 until 2010. Two models are considered. One is based on an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010289805