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Germany's slump explaining the unemployment crisis of the 1990s

Lindlar, Ludger; Scheremet, Wolfgang - 1998

According to a widespread view, Germany's unemployment crisis is caused by rigid labour markets, low profitability and increasing international competition. We argue that this view does not provide a convincing explanation for the dramatic rise in Germany's unemployment rate since 1989, first...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333060

International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: some panel evidence

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Hadj Amor, Thouraya; Rault, … - 2009

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271098

Drivers of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries: evidence from a FAVAR analysis

Dreger, Christian; Fidrmuc, Jarko - 2009

We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2008). The analysis is based on country VAR models augmented by a regional common factor structure (FAVAR model)....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291774

Interest rates, convenience yields, and inflation expectations: Drivers of US dollar exchange rates

Bernoth, Kerstin; Herwartz, Helmut; Trienens, Lasse - 2024

Using a data-driven approach to identify structural vector autoregressive models, we examine key factors influencing the US dollar exchange rate across eight advanced economies from 1980 to 2022. We find that shocks to inflation expectations, which are closely tied to unfunded government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015166015

The impacts of global risk and US monetary policy on US Dollar exchange rates and excess currency returns

Bernoth, Kerstin; Herwartz, Helmut; Trienens, Lasse - 2023

We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014309448

Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk

Bernoth, Kerstin; Herwartz, Helmut - 2019

of exchange rate shocks to sovereign risk in comparison with the traditional 'net trade channel'. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011985362

The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets

Menkhoff, Lukas; Rieth, Malte; Stöhr, Tobias - 2020

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226723

The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets

Boer, Lukas; Menkhoff, Lukas; Rieth, Malte - 2022

We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression … identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock … appreciation of the US-Dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Decomposing the trade policy shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208395

Sovereign default risk, macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary-fiscal stabilization

Kirchner, Markus; Rieth, Malte - 2021

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643595

International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility for emerging markets

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Fabio - 2015

This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility, using monthly bilateral data for the US vis-a-vis eight Asian developing and emerging countries (India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines, and Taiwan) over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383099