This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between...

This paper examines whether the behaviour of the real exchange rate is associated with a particular regime for the nominal exchange rate, like fixed and flexible exchange rate arrangements. The analysis is based on 16 annual real exchange rates and covers a long time span, 1870-2006. Four...

The real interest partity (RIP) condition combines two cornerstones in international finance, uncovered interest parity (UIP) and ex ante purchasing power parity (PPP). The extent of deviation from RIP is therefore an indicator of the lack of product and financial market integration. This paper...

We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...

This paper tackles the issue of cross-section dependence for the monetary exchange rate model in the presence of unobserved common factors using panel data from 1973 until 2007 for 19 OECD countries. Applying a principal component analysis we distinguish between common factors and idiosyncratic...

Using quarterly data from 2000-2007 and applying Error Correction Model and Johansen Co-integration Approaches I estimate the impact of real oil price on the real exchange rate of Azerbaijani manat. Estimation outputs derived from these approaches are very close to each other and indicate that...

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within...

In line with the neoclassical growth model a persistent stream of oil revenues might have a long lasting impact on GDP per capita in oil exporting countries through higher investment activities. This relationship is explored for Iran and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) using...

For many analysts, the Chinese economy is spurred by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with pos-sible adverse effects to the real economy. To get insights into the size of the bubble, the house price evolution is...

How do commodity price movements affect sovereign default risk over the long-run? Using a novel dataset covering 41 countries and 42 raw commodities, we take a comprehensive long-run view to shed light on this so far understudied relationship between commodity risk and sovereign risk across 150...