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We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
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Recent theoretical research has studied extensively the link between wage setting and monetary policymaking in unionized economies. This paper addresses the question of the role of monetary uncertainty from both an empirical and theoretical point of view. Our analysis is based on a simple model...
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"If there is no priced risk--including volatility risk--associated with hedging an option, then expected delta hedging errors should be zero. This paper finds that delta hedging errors of a synthetic at-the-money call option on foreign exchange futures are significantly positive and cannot be...
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