We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

We study the global macroeconomic effects of tariffs using a multiregional, general equilibrium model, EAGLE, that we extend by introducing US tariffs against Chinese imports into the US, and subsequently Chinese tariffs against US imports into China, consistent with recent trade policies by the...

This paper empirically examines the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e., gold, palladium, platinum, and silver) during the last four U.S. recessions. Unit root tests and fractional integration techniques suggest that gold still is the most prominent safe haven asset within...

We assess whether climate transition risk is priced in Europe's equity market by analysing relative equity returns of high versus low CO2-emitting firms. We use a panel data set covering firm-specific carbon emissions of 1,555 European companies over the period 2005-2019. We add to the existing...

We calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) under stochastic climate volatility resulting from uncertainty about future climate risk regimes where weather extremes are becoming more frequent and intense. Using a stochastic dynamic integrated climate-economy model where representative agents are...