Many seasonal macroeconomic time series are subject to changes in their means and variances over a long time horizon. In this paper we propose a general treatment for the modelling of time-varying features in economic time series. We show that time series models with mean and variance functions...

The basic structural time series model has been designed for the modelling and forecasting of seasonal economic time series. In this paper we explore a generalisation of the basic structural time series model in which the time-varying trigonometric terms associated with different seasonal...

We propose a new class of observation-driven time-varying parameter models for dynamic volatilities and correlations to handle time series from heavy-tailed distributions. The model adopts generalized autoregressive score dynamics to obtain a time-varying covariance matrix of the multivariate...

In this paper, I study the wage a firm sets to attract high abilityworkers (hipo's) in situationsof unemployment. I show that the higher unemployment, the larger afirm's incentives to sorthigh and low ability workers. Moreover, workers will signal their(high) ability in situationsof (high)...

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...

We investigate the nature of the adverse selection problem in a market for adurable goodwhere trading and entry of new buyers and sellers takes place in continuoustime. In thecontinuous time model equilibria with properties that are qualitativelydifferent from thestatic equilibria, emerge....

In this paper we compare the predictive abilility of Stochastic Volatility (SV)models to that of volatility forecasts implied by option prices. We develop anSV model with implied volatility as an exogeneous var able in the varianceequation which facilitates the use of statistical tests for...

In this paper we investigate whether markets with heterogeneous network externalities can belocked-in by old technologies even if superior technologies are available. Heterogeneous networkexternalities are present when some consumers care more about the size of the market share of agood than...

This paper develops a model for multi-store competition between firms. Using thefact that different firms have different outlets and produce horizontally differentiated goods, we obtain a pure strategy equilibrium where firms choose a different location for each outlet and firms' locations are...