We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two average forecasts have the...

Probability forecasters who are rewarded via a proper scoring rule may care not only about the score, but also about their performance relative to other forecasters. We model this type of preference and show that a competitive forecaster who wants to do better than another forecaster typically...

The one-switch property states that the preference between any two lotteries switches at most once as wealth increases. Working within the expected utility framework, we extend the one-switch notion to the multiattribute case and identify the families of multiattribute utility functions that are...

Decision analysis produces measures of value such as expected net present values or expected utilities and ranks alternatives by these value estimates. Other optimization-based processes operate in a similar manner. With uncertainty and limited resources, an analysis is never perfect, so these...

The availability of data regarding variables of interest in forecasting problems is sometimes limited, but experts may possess a great deal of relevant information. The approach taken in this paper involves the development of adaptive forecasting models based on such information. Since the...

In statistical decision theory, computations often involve the partial moments of a random variable. Several methods for determining partial moments are discussed, including direct calculation, the use of general formulas which apply to entire families of distributions, and the use of partial...

Scoring rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically...

A risk assessment model is developed to relate adverse health effects to alternative carbon monoxide standards. The analysis requires information in the form of available data and expert judgments concerning factors such as ambient CO level, human exposure to CO, physiological responses, and...

Proper scoring rules are over evaluation measures that reward accurate probabilities Specific rules encountered in the literature and used in practice are invariably symmetric in the sense that the expected score for a perfectly-calibrated probability assessor (or model generating probabilities)...

Data from surveys often include errors, and such errors can have a serious effect on inferences about behavior or perceptions. In this paper a model is developed for making inferences based on dichotomous survey data with possible errors. A likelihood analysis reveals an identification problem,...