This paper revises and extends PIIE Working Paper 20-6. It continues to find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is “low”—which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is...

This paper models inflation by combining the multi-country framework of one of its authors (Forbes) with the nonlinear specification proposed by the other two (Gagnon and Collins). The results find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is low, in which case...

This paper examines which economic, fiscal, external, financial, and institutional characteristics of countries affect the likelihood that they adopt inflation targeting as their monetary policy strategy. We estimate a panel binary response transition model for 60 countries and two subsamples...

Financial crises have been followed by different inflation paths which are related to monetary policy and money creation by the banking sector during those crises. Accounting for equilibrium changes and non-linearity issues, the empirical relationship between money and subsequent inflation...

This paper evaluates the changes in monetary policy frameworks made by 14 central banks in advanced economies over the period 2007-2018. We draw several conclusions about the evolution of their monetary policy strategies. There has been a tendency among central banks to move towards more...

We ask whether recent changes in monetary policy due to the financial crisis will be temporary or permanent. We present evidence from two surveys — one of central bank governors, the other of academic specialists. We find that central banks in crisis countries are more likely to have resorted...

How would a central bank digital currency impact the balance sheets of the central bank and commercial banks? To tackle this question empirically, we propose a constraint optimisation model that allows individual banks to choose how to respond to deposit outflows, minimizing their costs subject...

Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of "financial repression." Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive...

Data for a large sample of countries dating back to the early 1970s reveal that the large depreciations against the dollar that are occurring in many countries are not unprecedented in magnitude or duration. The pass-through to inflation from exchange rate depreciation has been slightly more...

In this paper we analyse developments in the composition of central bank balance sheets for a large set of central banks in a unified framework. Since 2007, central banks in advanced economies have experienced pronounced changes in balance sheet composition as a consequence of unconventional...