A sustainable long-run pattern in the relative competitiveness of euro area countries is a key factor for the survivorship of the monetary union. We analyze the issue focussing on unit labor cost dynamics using cointegration analysis for the whole economy and for the manufacturing sector...

Das 18. Ökonomenpanel von ifo und FAZ hat Professoren für Volkswirtschaftslehre an deutschen Universitäten zu einigen Vorschlägen zur Reform der Eurozone sowie zur finanzpolitischen Ausrichtung der geplanten EU- und Bundeshaushalte befragt. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass die deutschen Volkswirte...

Im Juni 2015 legten Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Mario Draghi und Martin Schulz Vorschläge zur »langfristigen Stärkung der Währungsunion« vor. Sie sehen unter anderem auch die Einsetzung eines beratenden Europäischen Fiskalausschusses vor, der die Arbeit der...

Vortrag von ifo-Präsident Clemens Fuest

Nicht zuletzt im Zusammenhang mit dem geplanten Austritt Großbritanniens aus der EU stellt sich die Frage nach neuen Wegen bei der Finanzierung des EU-Budgets und der Verwendung der Mittel. Für Thiess Büttner, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, erscheint es sinnvoll, die obsoleten...

We use an overlapping generations model to show that a bail-out is the optimal response to a fiscal crisis when the level of integration in a Monetary Union is high and the departure from Ricardian equivalence is significant. As it may not be optimal expost, the no bail-out rule is not credible...

The Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), central to the Stability and Growth Pact, is criticized for both its procyclical effects and – in contrast – a perceived lack of enforcement. To test its actual effects, we construct a real-time database of EDP recommendations and estimate augmented...

Enforcement of European fiscal rules, to a large extent, hinges on the fiscal forecasts prepared by the European Commission (EC). The reliability of these forecasts has received little attention in the literature, despite the fact that i) the forecasts have potentially far-reaching consequences...

A number of novelties have emerged in the study of the discretionary fiscal policy within the Euro area during the last decade. Among the others, the availability of up-to-date information on fiscal indicators for the years following the Great Recession, the introduction of cutting-edge...

Earlier studies on the equilibrium properties of standard dynamic macroeconomic models have shown that an inflation-targeting central bank imposes strict budgetary requirements on fiscal policy needed to obtain a unique and stable equilibrium. The failure of only one fiscal authority within a...