This paper examines the extent to which large swings of sovereign yields in euro area countries during the sovereign debt crisis can be attributed to fundamentals. We focus on the inherent uncertainty in bond yield models, which is often overlooked in the literature. We show that the outcomes...

In this paper we use high-frequency (intraday) government bond futures price changes around German and Italian Treasury auctions to identify unexpected shifts in the demand for public debt. Estimates show that positive demand shocks lead to large and persistent negative movements in Treasury...

Using an event study method, we examine how stock markets respond to the policies of the European Central Bank during 1999-2015. We use market prices of futures (government bonds) to identify surprises in (un)conventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that especially unconventional...

This paper employs a time-varying parameter state space model to explore the impact of the crisis on bank retail rates in the euro area. We show that σ-convergence in interest rates has been adversely affected by the crisis and quantify the role of sovereign and credit risk as two alternative...

We apply complexity theory to financial markets to show that excess liquidity created by the Eurosystem has led to critical transitions in the configuration of interest rates. Complexity indicators turn out to be useful signals of tipping points and subsequent regime shifts in interest rates. We...

This paper uses granular bond portfolio data to study how banking systems across the European Union (EU) adjust their asset holdings in response to regulatory solvency shocks. We also study the impact of these shocks at financial intermediaries on the prices of bonds in their portfolio. Despite...

This paper examines the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the Eurosystem on government bond yields and to what extent QE is causing government bond prices to deviate from their fundamental determinants. We apply a novel recursive estimation procedure developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to...

In response to a prolonged period of low inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) introduced Quantitative Easing (QE) in an attempt to steer inflation to its target of below, but close to, 2% in the medium term. This paper examines whether QE contributes to exuberance in euro area stock...

This paper investigates cross-border spillover effects from the Eurosystem’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) on euro area government bond yields. We distinguish between the direct effects of domestic bond purchases by national central banks and the indirect effects from bond purchases...

We study climate risk premiums in euro area corporate bond markets. As gauges of climate risk, we distinguish between physical and transition risks using textual analysis. Our findings show that, since the Paris agreement, physical risk is significantly priced in corporate bonds with longer-term...