During the Great Crisis, most governments in industrial countries supported their domestic financial sector under stress and responded to strong declines in output growth with fiscal stimulus packages. Starting in 2010, attention focused on the sustainability of the resulting debt burdens. We...

What is the role of micro and macro factors in determining house prices? We address this question empirically by analysing survey data on housing and mortgages from the DNB Household Survey for the period 1993–2009. We focus on the determinants of house owners' subjective assessment of the...

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations – in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil – by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their...

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the need to go beyond a purely micro approach to financial regulation and supervision. In recent months, the number of policy speeches, research papers and conferences that discuss a macro perspective on financial regulation has grown considerably. The...

To what extent do house price dynamics differ across market segments? And what determines this heterogeneity? We address these questions by analysing a data set of individual houses and mortgages, based on a survey of about 2,000 Dutch households over the period 2003-2011. We estimate a dynamic...

The financial cycle captures systematic patterns in the financial system and is closely related to the concept of procyclicality of systemic risk. This paper investigates the characteristics of financial cycles using a multivariate model-based filter. We extract cycles using an unobserved...

We study the effects of quantitative policy rate forecasts by the Federal Reserve on real yields and inflation expectations at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We study the effects of surprises in policy rate forecasts from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on real yields and breakeven...

The literature on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools is still in its infancy and has so far provided only limited guidance for policy decisions. In recent years, however, increasing efforts have been made to fill this gap. Progress has been made in embedding macroprudential policy...

This paper analyses the results from a new monthly survey of consumers’ euro area inflation expectations before and during the pandemic. We find that consumers’ longterm euro area inflation expectations have remained elevated above the ECB’s inflation aim throughout the pandemic. Moreover,...

We provide evidence on the reactions of the level and probability distribution of households’ expectations of inflation in the euro area to the ECB’s monetary strategy change to a symmetric inflation target in July 2021, and to the subsequent strong rise in euro area inflation above target....