We shed new light on the anchoring of long-term euro area inflation expectations since the crisis by using micro evidence from a new survey at high (weekly) frequency. We find that long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored to the ECB's inflation aim, which has acted as a focal...

We study the effects of quantitative policy rate forecasts by the Federal Reserve on real yields and inflation expectations at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We study the effects of surprises in policy rate forecasts from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on real yields and breakeven...

We provide new evidence on the level and probability distribution of consumers' longterm expectations of inflation in the euro area and the Netherlands, using a representative Dutch survey. We find that consumers' long-term (ten years ahead) euro area inflation expectations are not well anchored...

The literature on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools is still in its infancy and has so far provided only limited guidance for policy decisions. In recent years, however, increasing efforts have been made to fill this gap. Progress has been made in embedding macroprudential policy...

This paper investigates how the perceived risk that the euro area will experience deflation has evolved over time, and what this risk implies for the credibility of the ECB. We use a novel data set on market participants' perceptions of short- to long-term deflation risk implied by year-on-year...

The financial cycle captures systematic patterns in the financial system and is closely related to the concept of procyclicality of systemic risk. This paper investigates the characteristics of financial cycles using a multivariate model-based filter. We extract cycles using an unobserved...

We study the use of US dollar central bank swap lines as a tool for addressing dislocations in the foreign currency swap market against the USD since the global financial crisis. We find that the use of the Federal Reserve's USD central bank swap lines was mainly related to tensions in US money...

We study the extent to which house price dynamics differ across market segments and possible drivers of this heterogeneity. We construct a data set for individual houses and mortgages, based on a survey of about 500 Dutch households conducted over the period 2003-2016. We estimate a dynamic...

Credit restrictions were used as a monetary policy instrument in the Netherlands from the 1960s to the early 1990s. We study the effects of credit restrictions being active on the balance sheet structure of banks and other financial institutions. We find that banks mainly responded to credit...

This paper compares market reactions to forecasts of the policy rate path provided by FOMC participants (“dots”) in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) with those to forward guidance provided by the FOMC in its statements. We find that market expectations of the time to lift-off from...