How do banks operate in a negative policy rate environment? Bank profitability is threatened by policy rate cuts in negative territory because the zero lower bound on retail deposit rates prevents banks from benefiting from cheaper deposit funding costs. Contrary to some earlier research, this...

We apply complexity theory to financial markets to show that excess liquidity created by the Eurosystem has led to critical transitions in the configuration of interest rates. Complexity indicators turn out to be useful signals of tipping points and subsequent regime shifts in interest rates. We...

We show that through the safe asset channel the excess liquidity created by QE can lead to higher sovereign bond spreads in the euro area. This unintended effect is most likely in stressed markets when excess liquidity spurs demand for tradeable safe assets, pushing down the interest rate of...

This paper explores the optimal allocation of government bond purchases within a monetary union, using a two-region DSGE model, where regions are asymmetric with respect to economic size and portfolio characteristics: the extent of substitutability between assets of different maturity and...

Money markets play a central role in monetary policy implementation. Money market functioning has changed since the financial crisis. This arguably reflects the interaction of two forces: Changes in monetary policy, and changes in regulation. This interaction is not yet well understood. We focus...

This paper shows that a rate hike has countervailing effects on banks' risk appetite. It reduces risk when the debt burden of the banking sector is modest. We model a regulator whose trade-off between bank risk and credit supply is derived from a welfare function. We show that the regulator...

This paper investigates how changes in the monetary policy framework have affected the overnight money market lending rate for the Dutch segment of the euro area during tranquil and crisis times. We present an EGARCH model on the volatility of the overnight lending rate. The results show that...

This paper examines the link between interest rates and expenditures, known as the IS-curve. Specifically, we analyse whether the reaction of spending behaviour to monetary policy changes is different in a low compared to a normal interest rate environment. We estimate the nonlinear IS-curve for...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

We present an empirical approach to derive the implicit stance of monetary policy. The indicator can be interpreted as an implied short-term interest rate that is not restricted by the effective lower bound. Factor analysis is used to extract an expectations and term premium component from...