This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-period forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models in the form of parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregressions. To account for serial correlation in the residuals of the multi-period...

The financial cycle captures systematic patterns in the financial system and is closely related to the concept of procyclicality of systemic risk. This paper investigates the characteristics of financial cycles using a multivariate model-based filter. We extract cycles using an unobserved...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

This paper revisits the credit spread puzzle in bank CDS spreads from the perspective of information contagion. The puzzle, rst detected in corporate bonds, consists of two stylized facts: Structural determinants of credit risk not only have low explanatory power but also fail to capture a...

We consider a multivariate unobserved component time series model to disentangle the short-term and medium-term cycle for the G7 countries and the Netherlands using four key macroeconomic and financial time series. The novel aspect of our approach is that we simultaneously decompose the...

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of changes in loan-to-value limits using an approach that involves the cross-sectional loan-to-value distribution and does not require that a limit is actually in place. We show that the effects are asymmetric and non-linear as tighter limits constrain a...

This paper estimates demand and supply of mortgage credit by using a hierarchical trend model. The empirical analysis is based on loan-level data covering the years 2005-2014 in the Netherlands. We find that high-income households take out higher loan amounts and have higher collateral values....

A common definition of liquidity in real estate investment is the ability to sell property assetsquickly at full value, as reflected by transaction volume. The present paper makes methodologicaland conceptual contributions in the study and understanding of liquidity. First, we extendthe Fisher...

We analyze the empirical relevance of heterogeneous expectations at the effective lower bound (ELB) in the canonical New Keynesian model. Agents are allowed switch between an anchored Rational Expectations (RE) rule and an adaptive learning rule, where the latter may generate a de-anchoring of...

We estimate changes in firm-specific volatility in sales and earnings growth of US firms. We do so using an approach which better captures firm-specific volatility than commonly used dispersion measures do. Our results do not lend strong support to the common view that firm-specific volatility...