We show how simple statistical techniques for capturing critical transitions used in natural sciences, fail to capture economic regime shifts. This implies that we need to use model-based approaches to identify critical transitions. We apply a heterogenous agents model in a standard housing...

In this paper we analyse whether the use of debit card payments data improves the accuracy of one-quarter ahead forecasts and nowcasts (current-quarter forecasts) of Dutch private household consumption. Since debit card payments data are timely available, they may be a valuable indicator of...

This paper estimates the relation between bank profitability and economic downturns using a theoretical model that takes into account the bank's lending history as well as amortization and losses on outstanding loans. We focus on total bank profits and its components: net interest income, other...

The rapid proliferation of electronic payment media continues to change the way consumers shop and merchants sell goods and services. Many policymakers and economists agree that the digitization of payments is socially beneficial. However, there is considerable debate regarding the optimal...

This paper analyzes the welfare implications of creating a Single Euro Payments Area. We study the effects of increased network compatibility and payment scale economies on consumer and merchant card fees and its impact on card usage. In particular, we model competition among debit cards and...

In this article we empirically analyze how the Tourist Test methodology affects the level of multilateral interchange fees (MIFs) for debit card payments over time. Using Dutch cost data for 2002 and 2009 we argue that this method leads to rising cost for merchants in the long run. The outcomes...

Banks supply payment services that underpin the smooth operation of the economy. To ensure an efficient payment system, it is important to maintain competition among payment service providers but data available to gauge the degree of competition is quite limited. We propose and implement a...

We study the global macroeconomic effects of tariffs using a multi-regional, general equilibrium model, EAGLE, that we extend by introducing US tariffs against Chinese imports into the US, and subsequently Chinese tariffs against US imports into China, consistent with recent trade policies by...

We consider debit and credit card networks. Our contribution is to introduce the role of consumer credit into these payment networks, and to assess the way this affects competition and equilibrium fees. We analyze a situation in which overdrafts are associated with current accounts and debit...

The provision of retail payment services is complex with many participants engaging in a series of interrelated bilateral transactions and subject to large economies of scale and scope along with strong adoption, usage and network externalities. This makes sound public policy difficult. We focus...