We investigate how non-specialists form inflation expectations by running an experiment using a basic Overlapping Generations (OLG) model. The participants of the experiment are students of the University of Amsterdam, who predict inflation during 50 successive periods and are rewarded based on...

We construct the first measure of collateral re-use at the bank and bond level for the European repo market using a regulatory transaction dataset. We show that banks materially increase the rate of re-use in response to tightened asset scarcity induced by the Eurosystem’s asset purchase...

This paper shows how large data sets can be visualized in a dynamic way to support exploratory research, highlight econometric results or provide early warning information. The case studies included in this paper case are based on the payments and unsecured money market transaction data of the...

This paper links the debate on the decrease in competitiveness and business dynamism with that on rising inequality. We build a framework with entry, imperfect competition, heterogeneous households, and incomplete markets. Recent trends in markups, factors' share, and business dynamism are...

Asymmetric effects across sectors are the distinctive features of the Covid-19 shock. Business Formation Statistics in the United States show a reallocation of entry and exit opportunities across sectors in the initial phase of the pandemic. To explain these facts, we propose an...

Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition explores the role of imported intermediate goods in explaining the puzzling behaviour of inflation. The trend analysis shows that, starting from the...

We extract tone-adjusted, time-varying and hierarchically ordered topics from a large corpus of Dutch financial news and investigate whether these topics are useful for monitoring the business cycle and nowcasting GDP growth in the Netherlands. The financial newspaper articles span the period...

Using real-time data from the annual budget over the period 1958-2009, we explore the planning and realization of fiscal policy in the Netherlands . Our key findings are the following. First, planned surpluses are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during the first half of the...

We estimate the effects of government consumption and investment shocks during prolonged episodes of low interest rates, which we consider as proxy for the effective lower bound. Using a panel VAR model for 17 advanced countries, in which we include real government spending, output, inflation,...

Using data for more than 200 banks from 21 OECD countries for the period 2002 to 2008, we examine the impact of bank regulation and supervision on banking risk using quantile regressions. In contrast to most previous research, we find that banking regulation and supervision has an effect on the...