In January this year, we were confronted with a case of plagiarism. One paper that had been submitted last year by a certain person turned out to be written by three other persons. It was presented by the three true authors at a conference in 2010, where they distributed copies of their paper....

Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series...