This paper, using data from the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and a range of time-varying district-level contextual information derived from the 1986 and 1996 censuses of Iran, applies a discrete time hazard model to study ethnic differences in women’s transition to first...

It has long been recognized that the patterns of growth play an important role in the evolution of age trajectories of fertility and mortality (Williams, 1957). Life history studies would benefit from a better understanding of strategies and mechanisms of growth, but still no comparative...

This paper considers forecasting life table, and proposes a model averaging approach to improve point and interval forecast accuracy. Illustrated by data of eleven countries, we compare point and interval forecasts among ten principal component and two random walk methods. Based on averaged...

This paper studies the evolution of deliberate fertility control in fourteen historic German villages between 1700 and 1900. The fertility response to infant and child mortality and exogenous fluctuations in rye price are used as measures of the existence and extent of deliberate non-parity...