This paper considers forecasting life table, and proposes a model averaging approach to improve point and interval forecast accuracy. Illustrated by data of eleven countries, we compare point and interval forecasts among ten principal component and two random walk methods. Based on averaged...

This paper studies the evolution of deliberate fertility control in fourteen historic German villages between 1700 and 1900. The fertility response to infant and child mortality and exogenous fluctuations in rye price are used as measures of the existence and extent of deliberate non-parity...

In this paper, we illustrate the application of Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty. The focus is on a simple projection model with the historical data representing population change in England and Wales from 1841 to 2007. The Bayesian forecasts to...