The difference in yields between long-term and short-term securities has been used both as a business cycle leading indicator and as an indicator of the current impact of monetary policy. This paper tests for an asymmetry, in the form of a threshold effect, such that the impact of the yield...

For quantities that are approximately stationary, the information content of statistical forecasts tends to decline as the forecast horizon increases, and there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts cannot provide discernibly more information about the variable than is present in the...

For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not...

Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomics modelling and forecasting. However, technological advances of the past several years have resulted in new...