We model economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the four largest euro area countries by applying machine learning techniques to news articles. The unsupervised machine learning algorithm used makes it possible to retrieve the individual components of overall EPU endogenously for a wide range of...

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the need for timely and granular information to assess the state of the economy in real time. Weekly and daily indices have been constructed using higher frequency data to address this need. Yet the seasonal and calendar adjustment of the underlying time...

This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...

This study develops a novel agent-based model of the interbank market with endogenous credit risk formation mechanisms. We allow banks to exchange funds through unsecured and secured transactions in order to facilitate the flow of funds to the most pro table investment projects. Our model...

This paper studies the relationship between the size of the banking sector's refinancing needs vis-à-vis the central bank and auction rates in its open market operations in times of financial market stress. In a theoretical model, it is found that marginal rates at central bank auctions may...

Any empirical analysis of the credit channel faces a key identification challenge: changes in credit supply and demand are difficult to disentangle. To address this issue, we use the detailed answers from the US and the confidential and unique Euro area bank lending surveys. Embedding this...

We study European banks' demand for short-term funds (liquidity) during the summer 2007 subprime market crisis. We use bidding data from the European Central Bank's auctions for one-week loans, their main channel of monetary policy implementation. Our analysis provides a high-frequency,...

The market-oriented approach promoted by the European Central Bank in the design of its refinancing operations creates incentives to credit insitutions to use actively the interbank market to manage their liquidity needs. In this context, we examine the ability of the overnight segment to...