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~isPartOf:"Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper"
~isPartOf:"ECB Working Paper"
~isPartOf:"European journal of operational research : EJOR"
~isPartOf:"MPRA Paper"
~subject:"Theorie"
~subject:"Time series analysis"
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1
Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data
Diron, Marie
-
2006
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668
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2
Economic Analysis Using Higher Frequency Time Series : Challenges for Seasonal Adjustment
Ollech, Daniel
-
2022
The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the need for timely and granular information to assess the state of the economy in real time. Weekly and daily indices have been constructed using higher frequency data to address this need. Yet the seasonal and calendar adjustment of the underlying time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306820
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3
Understanding inflation persistence: a comparison of different models
Dixon, Huw
;
Kara, Engin
-
2006
This paper adopts the Impulse-Response methodology to understand inflation persistence. It has often been argued that existing models of pricing fail to explain the persistence that we observe. We adopt a common general framework which allows for an explicit modelling of the distribution of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604718
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4
The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the Euro Area : NMCM - With Boundedly Rational Learning Expectations
Dieppe, Alistair
-
2011
Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128293
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5
Understanding and
Forecasting
Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Dynamics
Bermingham, Colin
-
2011
The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122152
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6
Aging and Pension Reform : Extending the Retirement Age and Human Capital Formation
Vogel, Edgar
-
2012
Projected demographic changes in industrialized countries will reduce the share of the working-age population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital-labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase with adverse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100571
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7
Forecasting
and Stress Testing with Quantile Vector Autoregression
Chavleishvili, Sulkhan
-
2019
We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859199
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8
The International Dimension of Confidence Shocks
Dees, Stephane
-
2014
Building on Beaudry, Nam and Wang (2011) - hereafter BNW -, we use survey data on consumer sentiment in order to identify the causal effects of confidence shocks on real economic activity in a selection of advanced economies. Starting from a set of closed-economy VAR models, we show that these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055735
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9
Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility
Carriero, Andrea
;
Clark, Todd E.
;
Marcellino, …
-
2022
the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical
forecasting
, outlier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289477
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10
Shadow-Rate VARs
Carriero, Andrea
;
Clark, Todd E.
;
Marcellino, …
-
2023
VARs are a popular tool for
forecasting
and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352599
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