The main result in Svensson (2017) and its previous versions is that, given current knowledge and empirical estimates, the cost of using monetary policy to "lean against the wind" for financialstability purposes exceeds the benefit by a substantial margin. Adrian and Liang (2016a) conduct a...

This paper explores monetary-macroprudential policy interactions in a simple, calibrated New Keynesian model incorporating the possibility of a credit boom precipitating a financial crisis and a loss function reflecting financial stability considerations. Deploying the countercyclical capital...

Using a signal extraction framework and looking at OECD countries over a 30 year period this paper attempts to identify a number of variables significant in predicting near-crises as a pre-cursor to full-fledged crises. These include growth in pension assets as an indicator for the development...

This paper aims to highlight why the harmonization of two major legislative frameworks, namely, Basel III and the Dodd Frank Act, will contribute immensely to resolving future global as well as regional financial crises. More specifically, the paper also aims to highlight the significance and...

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the need for timely and granular information to assess the state of the economy in real time. Weekly and daily indices have been constructed using higher frequency data to address this need. Yet the seasonal and calendar adjustment of the underlying time...

This paper builds a macro-prudential tool designed to assess whether the banking sector is adequately prepared to orderly withstand losses resulting from normal or stressed macroeconomic and microeconomic scenarios. The link between the banking sector and the real sector is established via the...

Using a unique dataset of the Euro area and the U.S. bank lending standards, we find that low (monetary policy) short-term interest rates soften standards, for household and corporate loans. This softening – especially for mortgages – is amplified by securitization activity, weak supervision...

This paper introduces a new indicator of contemporaneous stress in the financial system named Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS). Its specific statistical design is shaped according to standard definitions of systemic risk. The main methodological innovation of the CISS is the...

This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the...