This paper presents a new approach for analysing the recent development of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium....

In this paper we introduce two measures, the Systemic Liquidity Buffer (SLB) and the Systemic Liquidity Shortfall (SLS) to assess liquidity in the banking system. The SLB takes an aggregated perspective on liquidity risks in the banking system. In contrast, the SLS focusses on the problematic...

Using a unique dataset on the sectoral ownership structure of euro area equity mutual funds, we study how different investor groups contribute to the negative performance externality from large outflows. Investment funds, as holders of mutual funds, are the main contributors to the flow...

This paper presents a new approach for modelling the connectedness between asset returns. We adapt the measure of Diebold and Y¸lmaz (2014), which is based on the forecast error variance decomposition of a VAR model. However, their connectedness measure hinges on critical assumptions with...

Central bank announcements move financial markets. The response of inflation and growth expectations, on the other hand, is often small or even counterintuitive. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and...

This paper studies the behavior of corporate bond spreads during different market regimes between 2004 and 2016. Applying a Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, we document that the dynamic impact of spread determinants varies substantially with market conditions. In periods of...

We provide a simulation smoother to a exible state-space model with lagged states and lagged dependent variables. Qian (2014) has introduced this state-space model and proposes a fast Kalman filter with time-varying state dimension in the presence of missing observations in the data. In this...

We analyse the cross-country dimension of financial cycles by studying cyclical co-movements in credit, house prices, equity prices and interest rates across the G7 economies. We use wavelet-based statistics to assess at which frequencies cyclical fluctuations and their crosscountry co-movements...

We analyse the macroeconomic effects of exogenous contractions in bank lending to non-financial corporations in the Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy and Spain using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with endogenous hyperparameter selection and identification via sign restrictions. We focus...