Showing 1 - 10 of 156
In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000998
In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869991
find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012797207
changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013412976
The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014438415
The shifts in household consumption caused by the coronavirus pandemic affect inflation measurement in the euro area … via the updating of product weights. We propose a decomposition of the inflation rate, measured by the annual percentage … quantity components. Our empirical results show that euro area inflation was distinctly influenced by weighting effects for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077817
find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306825
How much does quality adjustment matter in measuring consumer price inflation? To address this question, we use … inflation only by 0.06 percentage points, which is balanced out by an increase due to quantity adjustment (e.g. a smaller … deriving the distribution of member states' cumulative inflation rates for typical quality-adjusted products. Our macro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014263227
changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243028
, premium components are less reactive to inflation shocks, while real rate responses change their sign from positive to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227061