We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...

We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...

We introduce two types of effort into an otherwise standard labor search model to examine indeterminacy and sunspot equilibria. Variable labor effort gives rise to increasing returns to hours in production. This makes workers more valuable and contributes to self-fulfilling profit expectations,...

In recent years, there has been a controversial debate on how the rapid diffusion of digital technologies affects labour productivity in advanced economies. Using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that cumulative labour productivity growth in the United States, Germany...

This paper builds on existing production network models to study the impact of global and sub-global carbon pricing. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE's sectoral accounts of...

We introduce two types of effort into an otherwise standard labor search model to examine indeterminacy and sunspot equilibria. Variable labor effort gives rise to increasing returns to hours in production. This makes workers more valuable and contributes to self-fulfilling profit expectations,...

This paper builds on existing production network models to study the impact of global and sub-global carbon pricing. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE's sectoral accounts of...

This paper presents a new approach for modelling the connectedness between asset returns. We adapt the measure of Diebold and Y¸lmaz (2014), which is based on the forecast error variance decomposition of a VAR model. However, their connectedness measure hinges on critical assumptions with...

Central bank announcements move financial markets. The response of inflation and growth expectations, on the other hand, is often small or even counterintuitive. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and...

This paper studies the behavior of corporate bond spreads during different market regimes between 2004 and 2016. Applying a Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, we document that the dynamic impact of spread determinants varies substantially with market conditions. In periods of...