This paper studies the ability of manufacturing-specific shocks to explain global oil prices. In an estimated three-region DSGE model (UnitedStates, OPEC, rest-of-world) in corporating two sectors (manufacturing and services) in the oil-importing economies and featuring cross-border...

In structural vector autoregressive models of United States and euro area manufacturing, we use sign restrictions to identify shocks that alter the frictions to Chinese supply chain trade. We find a quantitatively significant role of such shocks for the decline of US manufacturing output at the...

This paper studies the ability of manufacturing-specific shocks to explain global oil prices. In an estimated three-region DSGE model (United States, OPEC, rest-of-world) incorporating two sectors (manufacturing and services) in the oil-importing economies and featuring cross-border...

In structural vector autoregressive models of United States and euro area manufacturing, we use sign restrictions to identify shocks that alter the frictions to Chinese supply chain trade. We find a quantitatively significant role of such shocks for the decline of US manufacturing output at the...

Central bank announcements move financial markets. The response of inflation and growth expectations, on the other hand, is often small or even counterintuitive. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and...

According to current regulation, European banks can apply zero risk weights to sovereign exposures in their balance sheet, irrespective of the assigned rating. We show that a zero risk weighting of sovereign bonds has implications by distorting banks' asset allocation decisions. Due to the lower...

Does a shift to ambitious climate policy increase financial fragility? In this paper, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises to study such "Climate Minsky Moments". By reducing asset returns, an accelerated transition to net zero exerts...

We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

In the presence of financial frictions, banks' capital position may constrain their ability to provide loans. The banking sector may thus have important feedback effects on the macroeconomy. To shed new light on this issue, we combine two approaches. First, we use microeconomic balance sheet...

We develop an extended real business cycle (RBC) model with financially con-strained firms and non-pledgeable intangible capital. Based on a model-consistentseries for firms' borrowing conditions, we find, within a structural vector autoregres-sion (SVAR) framework, that, in response to an...