Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about a hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to the Federal Reserve's flexible average inflation targeting (AIT). Inflation...

We study how households adjust their medium-term inflation expectations under the new ECB strategy. We find that survey respondents make little difference between the previous strategy of targeting inflation rates close to but below 2% and the new strategy with a symmetric 2% target. Yet,...

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...

We study price dispersion and venue choice in the interdealer market for German sovereign bonds, where an exchange and over-the-counter segments coexist. We show that 85% of OTC traded prices are favorable with respect to exchange quotes, indicating the prevalence of an OTC discount. This...

Institutional funds have concentrated ownership by a few institutional investors, infrequent outflows and essentially no leverage. Yet using unique granular data on the bond holdings of institutional funds, we show that their trading behavior is strongly procyclical: they actively move into...

The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...

The reuse of collateral can support the efficient allocation of assets in the financial system. Exploiting a novel dataset, we quantify banks' collateral reuse at the security level. We show that banks substantially increase their reuse of collateral in response to scarcity induced by central...

Institutional funds have concentrated ownership by a few institutional investors, infrequent outflows and essentially no leverage. Yet using unique granular data on the bond holdings of institutional funds, we show that their trading behavior is strongly procyclical: they actively move into...

The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...

The reuse of collateral can support the efficient allocation of assets in the financial system. Exploiting a novel dataset, we quantify banks' collateral reuse at the security level. We show that banks substantially increase their reuse of collateral in response to scarcity induced by central...