Generalized additive models (GAM) for modelling nonlinear effects of continuous covariates are now well established tools for the applied statistician. In this paper we develop Bayesian GAM?s and extensions to generalized structured additive regression based on one or two dimensional P-splines...

In this paper we present a nonparametric Bayesian approach for fitting unsmooth or highly oscillating functions in regression models with binary responses. The approach extends previous work by Lang et al. (2002) for Gaussian responses. Nonlinear functions are modelled by first or second order...

There has been much recent interest in Bayesian inference for generalized additive and related models. The increasing popularity of Bayesian methods for these and other model classes is mainly caused by the introduction of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques which allow the...

Kalyanam and Shively (1998) and van Heerde et al. (2001) have proposed semiparametric models to estimate the influence of price promotions on brand sales, and both obtained superior performance for their models compared to strictly parametric modeling. Following these researchers, we suggest...

P-splines are a popular approach for fitting nonlinear effects of continuous covariates in semiparametric regression models. Recently, a Bayesian version for P-splines has been developed on the basis of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques for inference. In this work we adopt and...

We identify the causal effect of compulsory military service on conscripts' subsequent labor-market outcomes by exploiting the regression-discontinuity design of the military draft in Germany during the 1950s. Unbiased estimates of military service on lifetime earnings, wages, and employment are...

Compulsory military service typically drafts young men when they are at the height of their learning ability. Thus, it can be expected to depress the demand for higher education since skill atrophy and the delayed entry into the civilian labor market reduce the returns to human-capital...