In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Wechselkursprognosen Anhaltspunkte dafür liefern, dass Prognostiker ein so genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker einen Anreiz haben könnten, einem Herdentrieb zu...

We analyze the law of one price (LoP) based on BigMac and Fortnite prices. We find a positive but less than perfect correlation between the over-/undervaluations of the two indices. While we cannot reject the LoP for the Fortnite data, we find that it does not hold for the BigMac data.

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate...

We analyze the law of one price (LoP) based on BigMac and Fortnite prices. We find a positive but less than a perfect correlation between the over-/undervaluations of the two indices. While LoP holds for the Fortnite data, it does not hold for the BigMac data.

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...

This note analyzes export production in the presence of exchange rate uncertainty under mean-variance preferences. We present the elasticity of risk aversion, since this elasticity concept permits a distinct investigation of risk and expectation effects on exports. Counterintutitive results are...