We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather...

This study provides a unied growth theory to correctly predictthe initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortalityand net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the courseof their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate...

This article investigates economic performance when enforceable propertyrights are missing and basic needs matter for consumption. It suggests anew view of the so-called voracity eect according to which windfall gains inproductivity induce behavior that leads to lower economic growth. Takinginto...

In an inuential article Tornell and Lane (1999) considered an economy populatedby multiple powerful groups in which property rights in the formal sectorof production are not protected. They obtained conditions under which thegroups appropriate output from the formal sector in order to invest it...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...