We consider a simple random walk process, a special case ofthe Martingale model, which exhibits a deterministic break in its drift term,for instance, from positive to negative. This particular example can be aplausible model for a time series on exchange rates which displays a persistentcurrency...

The Hodrick-Prescott …lter is often applied to economic series as part of thestudy of business cycles. Its properties have most frequently been exploredthrough the development of essentially asymptotic results which are practicallyrelevant only some distance from series endpoints. Our concern...

In this paper we consider the situation where the deterministiccomponents of the processes generating individual series are linear trendsand the individual series are independent I(0) or I(1) processes. We showthat when those time series are used in ordinary least squares regression,the...

We consider the possibility of estimating a Dickey-Fuller regression, constraining the autoregressive parameter to be at most one, and imposing prior knowledge of the sign of the drift parameter. ...

In this paper we introduce a new test of the null hypothesis of nocointegration between a pair of time series. For a very simple generating model, ourtest compares favourably with the Engle-Granger/Dickey-Fuller test and the Johansentrace test. Indeed, shortcomings of the former motivated the...