We offer a theory of polarization as an optimal response to ambiguity. Suppose individual A's beliefs first …

form motivated beliefs in order to improve their subjective anticipation of the future political outcome. In equilibrium … evidence produces a temporary polarization of beliefs, but that disclosing unequivocal information eliminates the disagreement. …

. Both rely on statistically inaccurate beliefs but differ in how clearly they reveal that the choice was based on gender …

when individuals derive anticipatory utility from holding motivated, overly optimistic beliefs about the workload they need … for motivated reasoning allows workers to hold substantially more optimistic beliefs and identify a causal link between … the exogenous variation in beliefs and the deferral of work to the future. This systematic belief-based delay of work …

' beliefs about the future performance of a company. Third, we identify the types of narratives that investors find convincing …

demand by changing beliefs rather than by shifting attention. Our results suggest that information interventions that target …

A large literature studies subjective beliefs about economic facts using unincentivized survey questions. We devise … beliefs about average earnings by professional degree and average public school spending. Incentive provision does not impact … earnings beliefs, but improves school-spending beliefs. Response patterns suggest that the latter effect likely reflects …