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A systems approach to recursive economic forecasting and seasonal adjustment

Young, Peter; Ng, Cho; Armitage, Peter - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - 1989

The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005372789

Rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data

Sims, Christopher A. - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - 1990

In a world where time series show clear seasonal fluctuations, rational agents will take account of those fluctuations in planning their own behavior. Using seasonally adjusted data to model behavior of such agents throws away information and introduces possibly severe bias. Nonetheless it may...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498989

(S,s) inventory policies in general equilibrium

Fisher, Jonas D.M.; Hornstein, Andreas - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - 1995

We study the aggregate implications of (S,s) inventory policies in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Firms in the model's retail sector face idiosyncratic demand risk, and (S,s) inventory policies are optimal because of fixed order costs. The model economy replicates salient features of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498985

The magnitude of the speculative motive for holding inventories in a real business cycle model

Christiano, Lawrence J.; Fitzgerald, Terry J. - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - 1989

The motive to hold inventories purely in the hope of profiting from a price increase is called the speculative motive … implication for how large it is quantitatively. This paper incorporates the speculative motive for holding inventories into an … of the speculative role for holding inventories in this model is quite small. This suggests the possibility that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498988